I confirmed that the dst entry also has dst->input set to
dst_md_discard, so it looks like it's an entry that's been
initialized via __metadata_dst_init alright.
I think the fix here is to use skb_valid_dst(skb) - it checks
for DST_METADATA also, and with that fix in place, the
problem - which was previously 100% reproducible - disappears.
The below patch resolves the panic and all bpf tunnel tests pass
without incident.